A380 (Route) Specifications

WARNING:  This is a very technical posting!

Writes Mike Farmery (a friend)  from the UK:

 I would appreciate it if you could help me with some information.   I am giving a talk at a local school very soon called ‘The Chemistry of Flying’. I would like to start it off with a section that describes just how amazing modern air travel really is – in my opinion – a pinnacle of human achievement.   One of the things I want to stress is that it is both remarkable and routine at the same time.

 I thought that it would be good to focus on a particular case and a good one would be a Qantas A380 flying the routes from from London to Singapore, and from Los Angeles to Melbourne.  Would you please supply the following facts ….

Mike,  it’s my pleasure to pass the following information about the A380′s routes.   There is a lot of technical information here, so use as much or as little as you like.  The data is for one flight flown during the stated month.  Performance factors will change with the selected freight,  load, route, atmospheric conditions and speed-altitude profile flown.

Route 1:   London – Singapore (March)

Alex de Crespigny in the A380 Cockpit

Route 2:   Los Angeles – Sydney (September)

Do not be concerned – the A380 does uplift a lot of fuel on the Los Angeles – Melbourne sector, but with the very high passenger and freight uplift, the key specific fuel consumption ratios are much better than the same ratios for alternative aircraft.

A380 landing at Sydney airport

Month:   September
Cruise Mach: 0.84
Cost Index: 60
Passengers: 450
Ground Distance: 6,971 nm
Overage Wind: +1 kts
Flight Time: 14.4 Hrs
Air Distance: 6,957 nm
Fuel Order (pre flight): 208,500 kg
Trip Fuel: 195,600 kg (includes 1 tonne taxi fuel)
Flight Fuel:  194,600 kg (start of takeoff to end of runway)
Zero Fuel Weight: 363,600 kg (maximum is 366,000 kg)
Take Off Weight: 568,600 kg (maximum 569,000 kg)
Total Traffic Load: 55,609 kg (passengers, luggage, cargo)
Change in fuel burn per ton of change in takeoff weight: 316 kg
% Maximum Fuel: 80%
% Maximum Brakes Release Weight:  99%
% Maximum Traffic Load: 85%
PAX nm/kg (fuel): 16.09
Kg nm per kg fuel: 1,988

  Also, approximately,

Average Speeds:

True Air Speed at cruising altitude (~ 35,000′) – 550 kts    (633 miles/hr   or 1,020 km/hr)

Fuel consumption:

per engine at full power take-off:  10,000 kg/hr  (or 40,000 kg/hr for all four engines)

per engine at cruise:  3,000 kg/hr   (or 12,000 kg/hr for all four engines)

CO2 emissions:

I appreciate that the numbers above appear staggering, but it’s worthwhile to keep them in perspective.   It’s important to appreciate that only 2% of the world’s total CO2 emissions originate from the burning of aviation fuels.  More statistics for CO2 emissions (from multiple sources):

I have always welcomed robust debate and constructive criticism.

Matthew Squair, a very intelligent expert in risk and safety systems (and a person whom I hold in the highest regard)  raises the question:  ”Is there a role for military control checks in civilian aircraft?“

This question opens up a very large topic!

Food for thought.

Everyone has different thoughts over Christmas.

London (Thames, Westminster and “Big Ben”) (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

I am currently sitting in cold London contemplating winter.

The shortest day, or Winter solstice occurs in the Northern Hemisphere on about 21 December.   This is the day of the maximum Earth’s cooling rate, though the actual Earth’s temperature lags the “lapse rate” by about one month – so January is the coolest month (+4 degrees Celsius)  and July is the hottest month (+17 degrees).

Will London have have a white Christmas?   Will fog require us to utilise the A380′s wonderfully capable auto-land systems when I return here next time?     Will Alex have a great time as “Tower Boy” at the Cresta?  Will the northern hemisphere have another great ski season?

Long range sectors to cold destinations pose considerable challenges for aviators, even Santa Claus.    Here are some of them:

Surface Fog

London Airport has fog events on average three times per month in October, November, December, January.   Two events per month in February and March.    When fog is present, the A380s can land in fog if we only have just 75 metres of visibility.   When we choose to land in these conditions, it’s not the landing that is the problem, but the taxi to the terminal and then trying to drive on roads where the cars are rendered immobile in the fog.

Surface Snow

London Airport has snow events on average six times per month in January, five in February and four in March and December.   Snow looks pretty, but it plays havoc withe the aerodynamic performance of the wings and control surfaces.  Thousands of litres of de-icing and anti-icing fluid are required to protect an A380 before takeoff in adverse snowing conditions.

Fuel Freezing

Even Santa Clause would be challenged at this time of the year.    USA Jet A fuel starts to freeze at minus 40 degrees Celsius    Jet A1 fuel (that Europe and Australia provides) starts to freeze at -47 degrees Celsius.    Is this a potential problem? – sure.

Cold Fuel

Below are two photos from a flight over Europe at 3 a.m. in the morning when flying at 41,000 feet.   The outside air temperature is minus 70 degrees Celsius (SAT shown at bottom left)  and the temperature of the fuel in the A380′s Outer Fuel tanks has fallen to minus 35 degrees Celsius (shown mid left & right)  - just five degrees warmer than the freezing point of Jet A fuel.  Fuel in the Mid and Inner tanks have cooled to -28 and -14 degrees Celsius respectively.

We have a potential problem, but Airbus have considered and mitigated it.   The second photo shows that the A380′s automatic outer tank transfer function has activated to transfer the cold fuel from the Outer Tanks into the warmer Inner Tanks.   The top image shows the forward fuel transfer galleries transferring this fuel.   Problem averted!   (Though both of our fuel transfer galleries were inoperative during the Qf32 flight).

Had we been in another manufacturer’s large aircraft in this condition, then to prevent the fuel cooling further, we would have been required to either descend into warmer air or speed up to increase the compression (thus temperature) of the air impacting against the air frame.  Both of these actions would have reduced our maximum range.

Cold Outer Tank Fuel (-35 deg C) being transferred from the outer tanks to the inner tanks (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Notice:
1. The “COLD FUEL OUTER TANK TRANSFER” function has been automatically activated.
2. The fans are rotating (N1%) at exactly the same RPMs (to stop “beating” noises) (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Christmas Reflection

Most people will reflect over this period as we see yet another year come to a close.   Did we honour our “New Year Resolutions” and did we do enough to help our family, friends, company and others.

Have we kept up with the new technologies, collaborations and convergences in our new globalised world?

Have we kept up with Gen Y?

The new world is becoming dominated by social media, some of which I believe are here to stay.    Ignore these changes at your peril!      The proof is the power of Twitter, described in QF32 at page 177.    Click here to view a funny perspective of Christmas.

For those who wish to give QF32 as a present, the Personalised Autograph version of QF32  has been discounted 10% until the evening of 20th December.

Merry Christmas, Happy and Safe Holidays to you all from Coral, Alex, Sophia and me.

I have been researching Rolls-Royce engines for decades.     I have studied the engine’s “workshop manuals”.   I visited the Rolls-Royce production and engineering facilities in Derby, UK just two weeks before my QF32 event.

Yesterday I toured the Sin$700 m Rolls-Royce Seletar Campus in Singapore.   This is the first production facility for Rolls-Royce outside the UK and it is an amazing high tech resource for Asia-Pacific aviation.  The first Trent 900 fan blades are now amassing at the end of an 80 process production line, ready to be assembled into Seletar’s first Trent 900 engine that should be finished within a month.    I spent another seven hours quizzing the scientists and engineers about every aspect of the design, construction, testing and operation of the Trent 900 engine that we see on the A380.

I think I now know this extraordinary and remarkable engine pretty well.

Tin Ho, Rolls-Royce Operations Director , Seletar Assembly and Test Unit, Singapore, in front of an A380 Trent 900 fan assembly. (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

I intend now to write a report about the Trent 900 engine.  This will be for pilots and interested persons who want to get deep into engine design and operation.

Request for Questions

Please send me your Jet Engine, Rolls-Royce, Trent 900 and A380 Engine questions.  I’ll use your responses to guide the topics in my report.

Topics could include (but are not limited to):

• metrics
• efficiencies
• 2 spool versus 3 spool
• aerodynamics
• fan blades (composite versus titanium)
• turbine blades
• bladed disks verses blisks
• Surge, Choke and Operating lines
• wear and lifetime
• testing / certification
• vibration, monitoring
• temperatures and margins
• flutter
• ice
• bird strikes
• buzz-saw effect
• noise

High Flight (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Only those who fly fully appreciate the wonders that exist out the front of  the cockpit.  Our passion is fueled by the experiences of seeing and feeling many things, including the extraordinary cloud types that comprise our living atmosphere.

My memories of clouds include the theory in the RAAF’s class rooms, tempered and case hardened by experiences in the cockpit:

• Memories of  ”feeling our way” through thunderstorms in the RAAF Caribous (we had no radar to see them), ensuring that we disconnected the High Frequency (HF) radio antennae before a lightning strike fused our radios;
• The experience of being semi out-of-control in updrafts and downdrafts whilst flying in the RAAF (hold on, maintain a normal attitude and wait till it clears);
• The experiences of crossing, or jumping on the back of Jet Streams (narrow bodies of air that form due to temperature shears that can travel up to 300 kilometers per hour);
• The threatening view of roll clouds in front of thunderstorms that took on the colour of their contents (green ocean water) ;

  Roll Cloud (Source: Wikipedia)

• The seemingly innocent and beautiful views of “virga”, rainfall that evaporates before descending to the ground, but acts as the cooling process to create dangerous micro-bursts that are deadly to aircraft near airports;

  Virga (Source: Wikipedia)

• The fascinating events during lightning strikes to aircraft;
• Morning Katabatic winds that roll down mountain slopes in Perth, Adelaide, Jordan and Los Angeles; and
• “Rotors” of turbulent air that form in the lee of the escarpment just a few miles to the east of Perth Airport in Western Australia.   Every Perth inhabitant who has flown has probably experienced this rough ride just prior to landing or after takeoff.

Thunderstorm bashing up against the tropopause as we crossed the ITCZ over the Pacific Ocean on 24 December 2012.

The above photo of a thunderstorm was taken during my  crossing of the Pacific Ocean on my way from Melbourne, Australia to Los Angeles, USA.   We departed LAX  on the 24th December and landed in Melbourne on the 26th, so we enjoyed Christmas Day in-flight, watching out for and ready to avoid an unlicensed sleigh.

We were flying through the Inter Tropic Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a corridor ringing the Earth that marks the most heated surface temperatures,  that trails the sun’s highest position in latitude by one month.    The warmer surface heats the air more than the surrounding cooler surfaces.

Convective forces lift moist air mass in the ITCZ to form the highest and most spectacular thunderstorms on the planet.

• The water vapour causes the wet rising air to cool slower than the surrounding drier ambient air.   This growing temperature difference causes the rising column to become even more buoyant in the atmosphere.  The buoyant thunderstorm clouds can often ascend at more than 5,000 feet per minute.
• The thunderstorm tops rise until the atmosphere becomes stable.  The highest stable altitude is found at a point called the Tropopause, where the air temperature remains constant as the altitude increases.  The tropopause can be located anywhere from 25,000 (poles) up to 60,000 (equator) feet above the surface.   Many ITCZ thunderstorms reach these amazing heights and then then “top out” at  after punching though the tropopause.  This is the reasons that the coldest atmospheric temperatures exist over the equator!

Another night flying at 40,000 feet avoiding spectacular and massive storm cells. In this case we are 44nm (81 km) left of track and heading 120 degrees away from our next waypoint! Activity increases as the colour changes from green, through yellow and red to magenta. Our TCAS system displays an equally cautious aircraft in our seven o’clock and 2,000 feet below. (Courtesy: Richard de Crespigny)

Every pilot who flies through the ITCZ knows about these dangers and avoids thunderstorms accordingly.  We are always on alert, aware that a “safe” radar picture one minute can change into a “dangerous” paint the next.  We never fully trust the radar presentations.

The pilots creed of “one look outside is worth 100 radar scans” holds true and at night.  Whilst the passengers are snug in their seats watching the latest video, we have turned down the cockpit lighting to the minimum and pressed our faces against the windows, using the “Mark 1 Eyeball” to scan the outside horizon for dangerous storm cells.

We were flying at 38,000 feet when I took the above picture of the ITCZ thunderstorm.  You can see the top of the thunderstorm flatten out as it punches through the tropopause, its inertia pushing and penetrating the tops up into the calm troposphere.   The rising air has lifted the bottom of the troposphere deforming the high, flat cirrus cloud to take on a “concave” or “Lenticular” type cloud form.

The energy in this thunderstorm, if tapped, would have powered a city for a day.

This is just another day in the life of an airline pilot.

Our 400 passengers were either asleep in the A380′s remarkably quiet cabin, or watching one of the thousand in-flight movies.  Whilst they relaxed with their window shutters closed, we dodged one ITCZ thunderstorm after another, banking and weaving, banking and weaving through the sky, all the time ensuring that the aircraft rolled at a rate less than three degrees per second – a rate that is undetectable to our passengers.    We were busy in the flight deck whilst the passengers presumed that their pilots were carving a straight line through clear skies.

Not a drop was spilled from any glass.

Below is an excellent photo taken by Witta Priester and displayed on NASA’s  apod.nasa.gov/apod website.   This Undulatus asperatus cloud shows features of lenticular activity  that appear to merge into a larger stratus layer.  The photo was taken in New Zealand, a country given the moniker ”the land of the long white cloud” – another pointer to lenticular activities.  This photo supports my belief that New Zealand is one of the most majestic and beautiful mountainous (and maritime) countries in the world.

Asperatus Clouds Over New Zealand (Image Credit & Copyright: Witta Priester)

“High Flight”

by John Gillespie Magee, Jr. (9 June 1922 – 11 December 1941)

Every pilot’s delight. (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of Earth
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I’ve climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth
Of sun-split clouds, — and done a hundred things
You have not dreamed of — wheeled and soared and swung
High in the sunlit silence.  Hov’ring there,
I’ve chased the shouting wind along, and flung
My eager craft through footless halls of air….
Up, up the long, delirious, burning blue
I’ve topped the wind-swept heights with easy grace,
Where never lark, or even eagle flew —
And, while with silent, lifting mind I’ve trod
The high untrespassed sanctity of space,
Put out my hand, and touched the face of God.

Question # 6

Airservices Aviation Rescue and Fire Fighting fire vehicles welcome home VH-OQA Nancy-Bird Walton at Sydney Airport. (Courtesy AirServices)

See also:   Physics for the Coffee Table

OQA (Nancy Bird-Walton) taking off at Sydney Airport (2012) (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Situation

A major city (population 5 million) is planning to build a new airport at a new location inside the city.  Two sites are proposed: one beside the ocean and one twenty kilometers  inland from the ocean.

Consider the noise levels originating from aircraft taking off from both airports.  Ignore the noise from airborne aircraft.

Question

Which airport provides the quietest noise footprint for any single resident who lives an equal distance from either airport?  Why?

Quiz Prize

A380 Thrust Levers (Courtesy Richard de Crepsigny)

The winner will be announced at noon London time on Monday 15th April 2013.   The winner may chose their prize from the selection of Category 1 prizes.

Other Information

Qantas Uniform 1940s (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Free postage to the winner world-wide.

Thanks

The QF32 Web Site Crew thanks Pan Macmillan and Airbus for providing these excellent prizes.

We welcome prize offerings from other vendors who wish to participate in this fun competition.

Winner

There were no winners for this week’s question!

Answer

Inland airports have  larger noise footprints than coastal airports.

This phenomena occurs due to the effects of temperature inversions that develop more intensely inland than they develop along the coast.  The warm oceans reduce the incidence of Radiative Temperature  Inversions.

 This is one of the many reasons why coastal airports are quieter than inland airports.

Food for thought.

Incorrect answer .    Although it is true that land and sea breezes affect the sound footprints, these two air flows generally alternate every twelve hours and so the opposing effects cancel each other out over the period of a day.

Explanation  (Temperature Inversions (thermoclines))

Atmospheric air temperature normally decreases with height in the lower atmosphere.

A Temperature Inversion exists when the air temperature increases with height.

Radiative Temperature Inversions (or  thermoclines) form on clear nights when the radiation from the Earth’s warm surface travels out to space rather than being reflected back to the surface by clouds.   When this terrestrial heat energy is lost, the surface cools faster than the insulating blanket of air that lies above that surface.   In the extreme cases of cooling, thin layers (a few metres high) of Radiative Fog form when the surface temperature of that air lowers to its dew point.

The speed of sound is faster in warm air than in cool air.   Similar to the effect of light being refracted (bent) as it passes through a lens, sound is refracted (bent) as it passes though air masses of changing temperatures.

Surface sound is refracted (bent) skywards on a normal day in conditions where the temperature decreases with altitude.    Conversely, on a clear night when a Radiative Temperature Inversions exists, this temperature “lens effect” refracts surface noise back towards the ground (colder air).  So on a clear night, the sound of an aircraft taking off is guided down towards and tunneled along the ground.   This effect may be so pronounced that an observer above the airport might hear nothing!

Oceans reduce the incidence and severity of Radiative Temperature Inversions.   On a clear night, water cools at about half the rate as land.   So Radiative Temperature Inversions will form faster and more intensely over land than over water.  So the noise footprint from coastal airports is less that the noise footprint from inland airports.

There are many other practical examples of thermoclines.   Submariners  survive by relying on thermoclines to  refract and tunnel their submarine’s sound downwards into deeper layers and prevent detection by surface craft.    Views of a mirage (of a lake of water) in the desert is really just visions of light from the blue sky light that has been splayed (refracted) horizontally into your eyes.

On a clear night, when the Earth cools and the thermocline forms, the lens effect funnels sound to you from cars, trains, and aircraft located tens of kilometers away.    Everyone has heard the unmistakable and confusing  sounds from trains that are known to be normally too distant to hear.   During my childhood in Melbourne, I clearly remember  hearing the sound of aircraft taking off from Tullamarine Airport that was located over twenty kilometers away.

I am writing a book about big jets

My definition of the big jets are those bigger than the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320.  Large corporate jets (Gulfstream and Cessna) are also included.

For aspiring aviators who are oursuing a carreer flying Big Jets and for commercial aviation pilots, The Big Jets book provides an indepth and technical expanation for aircraft designs and aircraft operations. Unlike other aviation books, the Big Jets book will give the background for any pilot who is about to embark on a career flying Big Jets and will also provide the answeres to the most asked quastions by tadays’ pilots.

Click on one of these links to:

• register your interest in the Big Jets book, or
• ask Richard a question about the book

The aviation industry continues to  evolve.   The changing political, economic, cultural, technological and communication landscape is forcing continued consolidation of airlines, routes and aircraft types.

It’s a case of  ”less is more”.  

Start of a new day from the Pilots’ desk  - perhaps for the airlines as well!  (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

The A380 is a key player in this consolidation, transporting the rapidly increasing number of passengers between congested Asian and European international hubs. Asia is now the largest (and fastest growing) aviation transport market with 948 million passengers flown last year, followed by North America (808 million) and then Europe (781 million)  (IATA – 2013)

I am confident that:

• the A380-900 (stretch version) will be produced, and
• the A380 will fly up until the 2060s, and
• that airline ticket prices will continue to reduce as the seat counts increase on newer aircraft.

Furthermore, I think:

• the A380 will be the last large four (quad) engine commercial passenger aircraft to be built, and
• the industry will learn from Andy Green’s “Bloodhound SSC” in an ultimately successful effort to build jet engines capable of 150,000 pounds of thrust.

In this blog I’ll share a few of my thoughts about aircraft “sweet spots” and why airlines ultimately invest in one brand of a spread of aircraft to bracket their operational needs. Finally, I’ll discuss why a super sonic car might influence future super aircraft designs.

Sweet Spot

Every airline’s challenge is to deploy the best aircraft type for its route structure.   Indeed the selection of size and weight in aviation follows the same pattern already cast by nature.

Jonathan Livingston Seagull (Photo: iStockphoto)

The operational environment determines insect’s and bird’s cruising speeds that in turn determines its weight.    Small birds are suited for slow cruise sectors whilst international maritime flight is reserved for the fastest cruising (heaviest) birds such as the Pelican and Albatross.

Migrating birds that migrate beyond their “sweet spot” range risk perishing at sea.    Migrating birds drown if their long range cruising speed is insufficient to make headway into head winds.   Reports of mass bird deaths at sea show “natural selection” at work, extinguishing the birds that cannot accurately forecast maritime weather.

The Storm Petrel understands this weight-cruising speed-wind relationship.  Its name was derived by early mariners who observed the bird return to take refuge ashore before storms approached, conveniently broadcasting their foul weather forecast.

Using similar logic, we suggest that the Pteranodon, the largest flying reptile (despite its low wing loading) had such high takeoff, cruising and landing  speeds that flight was restricted to souring above the cliffs along the shore.

Pelican (Photo Sophia de Crespigny)

Aircraft manufacturers apply Biomimicry into their designs.   So the theories for birds also applies to aircraft – that the route length and cruise speed determines the ideal aircraft weight.   Everything else is a compromise; passenger count, fuselage size & type, wings and engines.

Aircraft selection also skews towards larger seat-counts for operations into congested airports (in Asia and Europe).

The consequences for Airbus and Boeing are clear.   Aircraft manufacturers must understand the demography and travelling habits of travelers and provide aircraft that are tuned to the same “sweet spot” speed and range that suits the market.

The  Great Flight Diagram shows a remarkable relationship between weight and cruising speed.   This graph also shows outliers.   The Concorde was hopelessly over-winged for cruise flight.  Compared with all other flying things, the Boeing 777s and 787s appear to be under-winged (faster) and the Airbus A350s appears to be over-winged (slower).    The A380 also appears to be over-winged, but for reasons outside the scope of this review.

The risk of poor aircraft selection is just as critical for the airlines as it is for bird species.  Putting the wrong airframe onto a route can have dire consequences.   The airline’s challenge is to apply the right aircraft for the required range.  For companies that fly long and short haul routes, its imperative to limit the number of aircraft vendors and aircraft  types to minimise the costs of manpower, training and maintenance.

I have gathered aircraft performance data over the past decade,    This data reveals the sweet spot ranges for many aircraft types.

I calculate that the current A380 has a sweet spot (maximum efficiency) range of between 5,700 and 6,700 air nautical miles (anm):

• 5,700 anm (Example: 12 hours flight time, London – Singapore)
• 6,700 anm (Example:  14.5 hours flight time, Los Angeles – Sydney)

I calculate the A330-300′s sweet spot is currently between 3,000 and 3,800 anm (although the heavier weight versions will increase the optimum reach):

• 3,000 anm (Example:  6.1 hours flight time, London – Dubai (2,870 anm))
• 3,800 anm (Example: 9 hours flight time, Sydney – Hong Kong (3900 anm)

I’ll publish sweet spots for other aircraft in my Big Jets book.

Understanding sweet spots make it easier to understand why Cathay Pacific needs more Airbus A330s and A350s than B747s and A380s.  Cathay’s Hong Kong home base is located within 5 hours flying range from half the world’s population.

Having introduced the ideal concept of the Sweet Spot, lets now look at compromises and divergencies from this rule.  For sometimes the  the practice is sometimes different to the theory.

Clearly the A380 is currently tuned for the longer haul and efficiency drops if the heavy airframe is flown outside this sweet spot over shorter or longer routes.  In these cases the passenger count and freight load must be maximised to protect profits.

Yet the  world’s A380s have flown an average sector length of only eight hours over their first six years of operation.

So despite a sweet spot time of 12 to 14 hours flight time, the A380 early adopter airlines have chosen to optimise the A380 for greater seat counts on shorter routes between congested ports.  The trend (preferencing higher seat count before the sweet spot range) will continue particularly in markets where more passengers travel into national hubs that have become (politically) land-locked and undersized (ie London Heathrow).

Very Large Aircraft (VLA)

Consider the B747 and A380 VLA aircraft deployments.   The top five B747 and  A380 airports (respectively)  for 2013 are: (anna.aero)

1. London \ Dubai
2. Taipei \ Singpore
3. Frankfurt \ London
4. Hong Kong \ Paris
5. Bangkok \ Frankfurt

These lists suggest that the VLA market is primarily used to resolve major hub congestions.      Notice that Australian and USA airports fail to appear in the these lists despite the A380 having a “sweet spot” that is ideal for USA-Australia routes.  From my own recent observations, the long  lines of A380s transiting at the congested Dubai and Heathrow airports reaffirms my conclusion that the seat count currently takes higher priority than the “sweet spot” range.

Transaero and Doric are two airlines extending this concept even further ….

Nancy Bird Walton (A380-OQA) (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

Super Carriers: Transaero and Doric

Airbus is trying to convince airlines to adopt the 525-seat A380 configuration.

Most A380 airlines offer between 407 seats (Korean) to ~ about 540 seats (Air France, Lufthansa).    Qantas’ A380s are configured for 484 passengers (14 First, 64 Business, 35 Premium Economy & 371 Economy).

Refuelling the A380 under a London (Heathrow) moon. (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

My data analysis shows that that an A380 filled to the brim with 853 passengers (315/538 on the upper/lower decks respectively) provides fuel efficiencies that surpass all other aircraft types, including another darling of the skies, the A330-300.

“When we put the proper seat count on the [A380] plane, the economics are unbeatable and will remain unbeatable”    (Doric Chief Executive Officer Marc Lapidus)

Two Airbus customers are listening and responding to improve the A380′s efficiency.

Doric, an aircraft leasing company is lifting the A380′s seat count to 630.   Doric plans for twenty A380s to most likely fill a strategic capability for airlines that wish to provide the most competitive  service between congested hubs.

The Russians will supercharge low cost  air travel even more when Transaero takes delivery of its first of four A380s in 2015.   Transaero’s A380s will seat 652 passengers in three classes (12 Imperial (first), 24 business and 616 economy) making it the first airline to fill the aircraft closer to its certified passenger limit (of 853).

“Toulouse – we have a problem!”

Transaero’s and Doric’s challenge is to select a lighter cabin design.    They will have a limited freight capacity (with a full passenger load) if they install heavy seats in a heavy cabin.

Currently the A380′s limiting freight related weights include:    (see QF32 page 345 for more info)

242t – Manufacturers Empty Weight (MEW) (approx)

300t – Dry Operating Weight (DOW) (45 tonne cabin fit-out plus crew plus catering)

369t – Maximum Zero Fuel Weight (MZFW)

Airbus designed the A380 to be as light as possible.   Airbus engineers planned (and hoped) that airlines would also fit the lightest cabin layouts, ideally weighing no more than I think about 35 tonnes.

Some airlines have installed cabin designs weighing up to 45 tonnes (heavy seats, showers, bars and two lane stairs).   These “obese” cabins  leave just  69 tonnes for passengers and freight (369t MZFW minus the 300t DOW).    If Doric installs a heavy (45 tonne) cabin, then 652 passengers and luggage would weigh about 65 tonnes leaving just four tonnes for freight.  The freight capacity can be increased if:

Transaero and Doric install the next generation of lighter seats and cabin interiors (lighter than 45 tonnes), and/or

Airbus further increases the maximum Zero Fuel, Takeoff and Landing weights.   (I think Airbus cannot reduce the MEW).

Westminster on Thames.   London is one of the A380′s key hubs.   (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

A380 – Future

“… the A380 is the future. And we don’t like anyone talking about it not being around.”  (Tim Clark, President, Emirates, announced Nov 2013)

A380′s Forward, Mid and Aft fuselages. A380-900 has an additional 5 frames in the forward fuselage (+ 3.2m) and 5 frames in the aft fuselage (+ 3.2m) (Image: Airbus)

I forecast that the A380 will be the largest operating passenger aircraft for decades to come (or until energy costs reduce to a small fraction of operating costs).

Airbus announced (October 2013) that the A380 program should break even (financially) in 2015  (based upon 30 sales/deliveries per year)

Evolutionary changes by Airbus, airlines and the engine manufacturers will all contribute to improve the A380′s efficiency:

• Airbus is investigating fitting winglets for a potential 3% increase in fuel efficiency (curiously based upon the A320).
• Both Engine Alliance and Rolls Royce have announced plans to improve their engine’s Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC).
• Airlines will be forced to fit better engineered cabins and more condensed seating.

A380-800

The A380-800 is 73 metres long.

The A380′s published sales price is US$400m.   This is higher than the “back of the envelope” figure of US$1m per ton of basic weight (without fuel and freight) although deals have been negotiated at bargain prices (Doric purchased  A380 (MSN 136) for US$245m)

The A380 continues to sell.    A total of 309 A380s have been ordered (end November 2013), 140 by Emirates (50 at the Dubai Airshow in Nov 2013).

A380-900

I hope Airbus decides to produce the next version of the A380, the A380-900.

The A380-900 is an A380-800 stretched by another six metres to make it fill a “box” 80 metres long by 80 metres wide.   The latest “Code F”  airports are designed to cater for aircraft having up to an 80 metre wingspan and 16 metre wheel track.

I guess that the certified seat count might increase by 80 to about 933 passengers extending the aircraft further into it’s own super league.

I think the A380 was always designed to be 80 metres long.   The cruising speed, wing, fuel tank capacity, and limiting weights all point to this aircraft needing to have a higher wing loading and thus, more passengers and more weight.

Airbus Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier recently announced that he thought the A380-900  will be available, maybe in in 2023-2028.  I hope so.

Last of the Four Engines

I think that the A380 marks the last four engine passenger aircraft that will grace the skies.

Four engine (quad) aircraft traditionally provided benefits over the twins:

• better engine optimisation (for the cruise)
• reduced wing bending moments (lighter wing box and wing)
• improved range, payload and high altitude performance

But these relative advantages of the quad have reduced with time.

Economics now favours the twin over the quad:

• Simpler and lighter structures,    Twins gain weight reductions and drag benefits from lightening the structures and optimising the flows over the rest of the wing where the third and fourth engines were removed.
• The integrated aerodynamic flows, wing aero-elastics, manufacturing purchase price, running and maintenance costs
• Cheaper to buy two big engines than four small.

Aerodynamicists prefer to design simpler  “semi clean” twins rather than the more complex “dirty” quads:

•  An aircraft i s now designed as a compete integrated unit, merging the fuselage, wing and engines into one complex structure.  Gone are the days of treating them as many separate entities.
• Quad aero-elastics is more complicated than twin aero-elastics.   This is a very complex subject.  However for a simple analogy,  please view my later blog: “Bio-Mimicry of shaking Dogs”.    Whilst viewing the video, imagine the dogs’ ears being aircraft wings. Now consider being the engineer given the responsibility to design the ears, responsible for the shape, structures, aerodynamics and aero-elastics.  Now imagine designing how to mount two engines onto the ears.  Now imagine mounting four engines onto the ears…

Despite these improvements that now favour twins rather than quads, many limitations remain that prevent engine manufacturers from making engines that could power a twin engine version of the A380.

Flying over Europe at 37,000 feet (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

“The engines canna take anymore, Cap’n!”

 ( Scotty (Character) - Star Trek)

The magnificent 84,0098 lb thrust, 32,000 parts, 6.4 ton, 8.5 to 8.7 Bypass Ratio, USD$18m Rolls-Royce Trent 900.   The dorsal fin at the top left? That’s a discussion for another time!   (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

No engine currently exists that could power a twin engine A380.  The A380 “twin” would probably need engines capable of producing up to 150,000 pounds of thrust, well beyond that current generation of engines that top out at about 115,000 pounds of thrust.    Many factors currently limit the capability to build super-engines, including:

• physical diameter of the engine (compromising the air frame by raising the fuselage higher off the ground), and
• the capability to build fan and turbine disks that are able to withstand the incredible forces without exploding (going BANG!), and
• the maximum temperature that the High Pressure Turbine blades can withstand.

The good news is that although I think the A380′s tail fin is over-sized for the A380-800, its probably the perfect size for the A380-900 or even the A380 twin (I’m a little cheeky).

Preventing things going BANG! …

Andy Green and I know a little bit about this.

Rolls-Royce Trent 900 4th generation fan blade – the most complicated aerodynamic structure on the A380. (1.07 metres long, 14 kg, pure titanium, “honeycomb” hollow wide chord, supersonic swept, diffusion bonded/superplastically formed (DBSPF) Cost > US$35,000 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

First, we need to understand that jet engine turbine disks operate very close to their temperature and rpm limits.

Aviation turbine disks are certified to survive rpm over-speeds of just 20%  (44% more strain) over the maximum rated rpm.  To put the centripetal forces into perspective, each fan blade on the front of the Rolls-Royce XWB jet engine (powering the new Airbus A350) experiences 100 tons of force during takeoff - equivalent to a freight train hanging off each blade.

The high pressure turbine blades (I think the most technically complex components on the entire A380) operate in even more threatening environments.   At high power the blades sit within (and are impacted-powered by) exhaust air that is 400 degrees Celsius hotter than the blades melting point!

QF32

Part of the 1 metre diameter, 160kg, 8,300 rpm   Intermediate Turbine disk recovered after the QF32 event (Image: ATSB)

In the case of QF32, the number 2 engine on my aircraft failed when the intermediate pressure turbine disk exploded under conditions of high temperature and RPM.

Andy Green (and his Super Sonic Cars (SSCs))

Andy Green, Sydney – 2013 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Wing Commander Andy Green is the Royal Air Force fighter pilot who in 1997 set the world land speed record of Mach 1.02 (1,228 kph, 763 mph) in the twin Rolls-Royce Spey 202 powered “Thrust SSC”  (Super Sonic Car)  jet car.

Click here to see the video of the record breaking run.  The car’s bodywork was exposed to air pressures of up to 10 tonnes per square metre.  Notice the shock waves churning-plowing the hard desert surface into dust.   Interestingly, Thrust SSC experienced an unexpected massive increase in drag at Mach 1.   The increase was attributed to the shock waves slamming against the desert floor, shattering the hard surface into an air-rock “plasma” – absorbing critical energy in the process.

After setting the land speed record, Andy’s next challenge is to build a his Bloodhound SSC car that in 2015 will exceed his previous record by 31%, exceeding 1,000 mph (Mach 1.4, 1600 kmph or 447 metres per second!).

Bloodhound SSC will be powered by a single Rolls-Royce EJ2000 jet engine (from the Typhoon Eurofighter), and a rocket motor (that incorporates an oxidiser “fuel” pump powered by a 750 hp Cosworth Formula 1 engine).   The jet engine and rocket will combine to produce about 133,000 thrust horsepower, the equivalent to 180 Formula 1 cars.

You might ask: “Why do we need 130,000 horsepower to travel just 16 times our road speed limit?”   The answer comes courtesy of the drag and power equations.  Drag is proportional to speed squared.   Power is proportional to drag times speed – so power is proportional to speed CUBED!   So we need 16 cubed (= 4,096) times as much horsepower to go 1,600 kmph than we do to travel just 100 kmph (although this equation does not account for losses from (shock) wave drag).    You will appreciate the Bloodhound’s high finesse (smoothness) when you divide 133,000 by 4,096 to calculate the horsepower the Bloodhound needs to travel at 100 kmph.

What has Andy’s Bloodhound got to do with the Airbus A380 and larger engines?   Andy told me that the Rolls-Royce and Bloodhound engineers face similar challenges:

Bloodhound SCC (image: Siemens NX)

• One of Andy’s limiting challenges for the Bloodhound SSC car is to create the fastest wheels in history that will not explode under radial loads of 50,000 G at high speed.    Bloodhound’s 90cm diameter wheels will rotate at 10,200 rpm, faster than most disks in your PC’s hard drive and three percent faster than certified 120% over-speed rpm limit for the the turbine disk that exploded on flight QF32.
• Rolls Royce also need to create larger and faster turning turbine disks that can power the next generation of commercial jet engines.  Their challenge is to continually extend the size and thrust limits whilst protecting reliability.

Although Andy’s wheels will be operating in cool air in the Hakskeen Pan in Northern Cape, South Africa, the research and development for Bloodhounds SSC’s  wheels will probably feed back to help Rolls-Royce design bigger more powerful turbine disks that will form the bedrock inside the next generation of larger Rolls-Royce jet engines.  Maybe with Andy’s help we will see super-engines capable of powering a future two engine A380!

Conclusion

This blog has covered some theory of flight from the Pteranodon, through the Storm Petrel, Albatross, Concorde and A330 to the A380 quad and A380 twin.  It also presents some of the challenges the engine manufacturers will face when building the next generation of turbo fan engines.

I doubt that we will ever see an A380 twin, but history shows that aviators have continually invented and improvised to make the impossible, possible.

Counter to some industry reports, I think the A380 (particularly the A380-900) will fill fly for decades, and remain the best of breed for long distance and high seat density travel.   Tim Clark (Emirates) thinks similarly, stating in November 2013, ”[the A380]  it’s a really good aircraft,”

I love the aviation industry!  It’s the most thrilling, extraordinary and exciting profession.  But never become overconfident and never forget Neil Armstrong’s mantra:

“Expect the unexpected”

I hope you enjoyed this brief tour.    The complete analysis will be included in my Big Jets book.

Good luck Andy.   Good luck Rolls-Royce.  Good luck Airbus.  Good luck Boeing.

Andy Green discussing his 1997 ThrustSSC world record in Sydney – 2013. (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Rolls-Royce is a key sponsor for Andy’s Bloodhound SSC project.  Coincidentally, Andy Green is also a Cresta (skeleton bob sled) rider who recently mentored my son Alexander at the Cresta Run in St Moritz.

Versions

Version 3 – added Doric information

You don’t have to be a dog lover to be awe struck by this fantastic video of dogs shaking themselves dry.   Their seemingly simply movements generate up to 70 G accelerations that “centrifuge” the hair 70% dry in just a few seconds.

(Photo http://www.shakethebook.com/)

Why is the QF32 technical blog referencing canine dynamics?

Because the dynamics of dogs’ shaking involves theories of resonance, damping, and (aero) elasticity in three axes.  Dog shaking has relevance to:

• Airbus A330′s and A340′s TURBulence damping switch,
• Airbus A380′s Dance of the Ailerons (QF32 page 129), and
• Thoraces and insect flight.

I’ll address human’s  bio-mimicry of the dog-shake later.  Impatient techies who want more should read my earlier post Aviation Now and Tomorrow – Airbus A380, Storm Petrels & Super Sonic Cars, in particular the paragraph headed “Last of the Four Engines”.

For thee rest of us, just marvel at the video!

(Image: Richard de Crespigny)

I will discuss my story of the QF32 book (event) at a special meeting of the Royal Aeronautical Society (RAeS) in Cambridge on the evening of Wednesday 27 November 2013.

Details at http://aerosociety.com/Events/Event-List/1309/Qantas-Flight-32-The-Airbus-A380-Engine-Failure …

Flight (Love) by the Mode Control Panel light (Photo: Richard de Crespigny. Title courtesy Meatloaf)

Update 22 Feb 2012

I think the Canadian “Air Crash Investigation S13E10 – Qantas 32: Titanic In The Sky” production  (as shown on the National Geographic channel) is better.

Mayday Mayday – Terror on QF32

Peter Overton presented “Mayday Mayday – Terror on QF32″ a special investigation into flight QF32 in Australia on On Sunday 16th February.

The one hour program analysed the QF32 flight.  Peter Overton, the narrator explained:  ”it’s a gripping tale of what went wrong”    Peter reveals more in this recent interview (that might only be viewed in Australia).

• Click here to view the documentary  (42 minutes)

The program also analyses two other controversial accidents that I had researched for my Big Jets book.

XL Airways Germany Flight 88T (A320) – France

Interesting traces from the A320 investigation. A “G” plot would have been interesting.

I studied the the BEA accident report after it was released, particularly the flight data recorder graphs.    I sumarised my investigation with the phrase that should reverberate in every pilot’s mind, and the phrase that I insisted be the title for QF32 Chapter 19 (the chapter that described the A380′s flight control laws):
“IF YOU CAN’T TRIM, YOU CAN’T FLY”.

United Flight 232 (DC-10) – USA

The second incident was the United Flight 232, a DC-10 flight on the 19th July 1989 commanded by Captain Alfred (Al)  Haynes.   The fan rotor  on #2 engine suffered an uncontained failure that caused a loss of all the three hydraulic systems that powered the flight controls.  The aircraft subsequently crashed at Sioux City.  (Click here to view the NTSB report).

Captain Haynes, his crews and the Sioux City rescue services executed a remarkable recovery in the most challenging circumstances.   Simulator trials after the event suggested that most pilots would not be able to control an aircraft without powered flight controls to land safely.

Mark Johnson, Matt Hicks, me, David Evans, Harry Wubben (Photo: R de Crespigny)

Of the 296 people on board, 111 were killed in the crash.  The remarkable survival of 185 is due to the exemplary performance of Al Haynes and his crews, the Sioux City rescue services, as well as the 285 additional trained personnel from the Iowa Air National Guard that by chance were also on duty at Sioux City airport to help with triage and evacuation.

Captain Haynes said after the flight:  ”We were too busy (to be scared).  You must maintain your composure in the airplane or you will die. You learn that from your first day flying.”

Captain Haynes’ management of the crisis is a text book example of Crew Resource Management (CRM), and Leadership:

• Aviate (someone has to focus on flying the aircraft!)
• Work as a team.
• Make good decisions.    Use all available resources.  Tap into your fellow pilots’ knowledge, skill and experience
• Communicate to all stakeholders (including the cabin attendants, passengers and air traffic control)

18 of the 25 QF 32 Cabin Crew at the Cabin Crew eXcel Awards Ceremony 2011

There has been a lot of recent interest in the production entitled “Air Crash Investigation S13E10 – Qantas 32: Titanic In The Sky”.     This program has been broadcast on the National Geographic channel. 

Closing Statement

It’s a pity that my final statement (shown at the end of the program) was shortened.   I actually said:

The Lancet 1918

The QF32 story – it’s not about me as the pilot in command of QF32,  the pilots, the cabin crew or even my airline.    It’s a story of resilience and team excellence where 8 teams pooled the industry’s knowledge, training, experience and worked together to survive a Black Swan Event.  It’s about aviation that for the last 110 years has shared their knowledge and experience to made aviation safer for the travelling public.

Click here to view more about this topic

Questions

VH-OQJ (Bert Hinkler) at London in April 2013. (Photo RDC)

Post any questions below.

I will attempt to answer questions that have not been analysed in the book.

(Think of Bert Hinkler whenever you see the A380 registered VH-OQJ)

Extoplasm and contrails behind an Emirates A380 at 35,000 feet (2,000 feet below us) flying east over the Indian Ocean (Photo RDC)

See also:

• Aviation pathways for Aspiring Pilots
• A380s, Storm Petrels and Super Sonic Cars

Viewers of last night’s Air Crash Investigators program (Australia on Channel 7) have asked me many questions including:

• Why didn’t we evacuate the A380 immediately after stopping on the runway in Singapore?
• What are my views about the Malaysian incident?

My answers centre around how I gather, judge, store and use data.

Empirical Skeptic

I am an Empirical Skeptic.

Sully Sullenberger

I am motivated by facts, not by presumptions, assumptions, bias nor group think.    I assess new information for its authenticity, provenance and trustworthiness before judging whether to accept or to reject it.   In this regard I adopt Richard Dawkins’ view:

“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”

In today’s society where everyone with a mobile phone is a journalist, the Golden Hour has gone and there has never been a greater need for full and open disclosure and personal guarantees.   We should also remember Ronald Reagan’s words:

“Trust but Verify”.

QF32

Critics have commented: “de Crespigny should have evacuated the QF32 passengers quickly down the slides rather than delay and disembark them down the steps.   The fuel pooling under the aircraft should have caught fire”.

Constellation – painted by one of the world’s best aviation artists – Jaak De Koninck (www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Roy Ford, my wonderful father-in-law often tells me:  those who “assume” make an “ass” of yo”u” and “me”.

We had a different reality on the “front line”. The firemen and ground engineers were our eyes and ears to the aircraft for the two long hours that we sat on the ground before the last passenger disembarked the aircraft. The firemen gave us information about the fuel leaks and any presence of fire.   They kept us informed.  We kept the passengers and crew informed.

We waited to be told if there was fire.   We were never told that there was fire.

We had assimilated much knowledge over our long careers that would perhaps become relevant:

We knew that the aircraft was certified to evacuate 873 passengers and crew through half the 16 exits in just 90 seconds.   In reality Airbus did not just satisfy this requirement, they excelled by evacuating everyone 12 seconds faster than certification required!   In our case we had all  16 exits available.  We carried only 440 passengers and 29 crew.  So theoretically, it could have taken between 21 to 25 seconds to evacuate 469 through all the doors.

Gasoline and jet fuel have very different qualities. Jet fuel is actually very hard to ignite and keep alight!

• Jet fuel has a “flash point” (fuel temperature at which vapour can be ignited) that is at least 80 degrees Celsius higher than the flash point of gasoline.

• Jet fuel “blows out” like a candle flame in a wind of just 40 kmph.     Frank Whittle, the inventor of the gas turbine engine, discovered this as he was unable to stabilise flames inside his first engine until he enlisted Shell’s help.   Keeping the engine alight is still one of the greatest challenges in today’s latest generation jet engines.     Inside an A380′s $20m Rolls-Royce  Trent 900 engine in the cruise, the outside air must be slowed from 925 km/hr (500 knots) to swirl around each of the 20 fuel nozzles in the combustion chamber at no more than about 35 km/hr!  The F111′s classic dump and burn at Sydney’s Olympic Closing Ceremony, was only possible because the engines’ after-burners were engaged to  constantly ignite the jettisoned fuel.
• A moving flame front over jet fuel spreads at only 10% of the speed that a flame front spreads over gasoline.   The “flame spread” speed of military, normal jet fuel and gasoline is about 6/30/230 metres per minute respectively.   The “Die Hard” fantasy film’s scene that showed a “fuse” of flame moving along a track of jet fuel training behind the hijacker’s aircraft is just that – fantasy!

  Inside one of QF32′s 11 fuel tanks.  Anti-static leads earth all fuel pipes to prevent static discharges.  Enlarge this image to view a fraction  of the massive shrapnel damage to the aircraft.   (Photo ATSB Report)

• Jet fuel has a much higher electrical resistance than gasoline.   In our case this means that passengers walking through the pools of fuel can generate sufficient friction to create static discharges within that fuel.   The principle is the same as as the electrical discharge that you feel when you walk over carpet then press an elevator button.   Even the friction of jet fuel flowing through fuel pipes is sufficient to create discharges inside those pipes - hence the reason for the many grounding leads inside fuel tanks as per the photos opposite.

Eight fire trucks surrounded our aircraft.   The fire trucks were loaded with foam and water to extinguish fire around the aircraft and passengers.

Trying to drown engine #1  (Source: ATSB QF32 Report)

Evacuations are dangerous.   My studies  show that about 15% of the passengers are injured when evacuating normal jet aircraft.   In our case, almost all our A380′s doors are higher than doors on normal aircraft.  We had elderly and wheelchair passengers and a toxic scene outside.

(Four percent of the passengers were injured in the latest Avro RJ100 passenger evacuation at London this week.  (RJ100 door sills are about one quarter as high as A380 door sills).

To evacuate or not to evacuate – that is the question

The previous points are relevant because we faced new threats when we stopped our A380 on the runway.  We needed different knowledge, training and experience to identify, rate and process these new risks and to make the best decisions.

The escape slide from the 3 story (8 metre) high upper deck door sill. Rocket powered venturi pump inflates slide within 6 seconds (2/3 is fresh air). Withstands 25 kts (46 kmph) wind blasts.

We faced two significant threats; the possibility of fire and the toxic environment outside if we evacuated down the slides.  Timing was critical.

• If fire had been confirmed, then we were prepared to evacuate the passengers down the slides under the protection from the eight fire trucks and emergency services.   It’s not a pretty thought of the elderly and wheel chair passengers jumping onto, then sliding down a 45 degree sloped slide from an 8 metre (3 story) high floor.
• We tried to mitigate the toxic environment outside the aircraft.   We called for aircraft steps to avoid the injuries that would result from an evacuation using the slides.   We also  requested buses to ensure that we would keep the passengers away from the pooling fuel, the running engines and the fire trucks.  We tried to shut down number one engine that was still running.  Fire services was spreading foam over the spilled fuel and water over the hot brakes.

The threats reduced rapidly as the fire services covered the fuel and cooled the brakes.   The passengers and crew were still safer on board our aircraft than outside the aircraft.

The rest is history.  There were no injuries.

Armchair Quarterbacks

Building  a plan in the absence of facts can result in incorrect decisions and actions and potentially dangerous outcomes.

QF32′s Brake Temperatures after stopping.   Brakes 1, 2, 5 & 6 are located on the left wing gear.  (The left body brakes (9, 10, 13 & 14) absorbed more energy as a consequence.   (Source ATSB Report page 240)

Just before my book went to print, the ATSB informed me that after we had stopped, that the four brakes on the left wing slightly inboard from Engine 2 (and under the fuel leaks) were COLD.    All four brakes were between 30-40 degrees (ambient) Celsius!

Source: ATSB QF32 Report

We did not know on the day of the event that these brakes were cold.  We didn’t know that the brake’s sensors and wires had been damaged by the explosions.  We did not know that these four brakes would also be 100% useless for stopping us on the runway that day – but that discussion is for another day.

I was not able to include this information about the COLD brakes in my book “QF32″.   It would have been a Criminal Offence to release this privileged information before the ATSB published its Final Report on QF32.   The left wing brake temperatures are now shown in the ATSB report at page 240 – although the reader would have to look carefully to notice it, and few have.

We reacted to the enemy (threats) that faced us on the ground that day; what we saw, what we knew, but never what was presumed.     We did not presume that a fire was present or that it would erupt.    We wanted proof.   We knew the environment was toxic outside the aircraft, so we mitigated the threats.

300 KVA in 6 phases of 115Volt AC power cables cut and shorted. AC (Photo: ATSB QF32 Report)

How many passengers and crew would have been injured if  we had evacuated on the presumption that there would be a fire?

Reflection

It’s now three years after QF32 and only a few weeks after the shocking Malaysian tragedy.

I share the world’s grief.

I am continually asked: “what do you think?”

My answer has never changed:  I’m an Empirical Skeptic.   I react only to facts and I don’t have enough facts!

I don’t know!

I’ll then repeat these guiding words from Robert Heinlein:

What are the facts? Again and again and again — what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history”

What are the facts, and to how many decimal places?

You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts! 

See also

The Golden Hour

The Media Circus around MH370

Delivery team for VH-OQD “Fergus McMaster” (QF founder & first Chairman) delivered SIN-SYD 24 Aug 2009.

“In Search of …  ”  Painting by Coplu (Coplu.Com)

Nerd Alert!

• I compiled this blog for Airbus pilots and ground staff who need to access the Airbus FOCT manuals.   It is written for those who wish to learn more about how to make full use of the impressive (but undocumented) search features in the Airbus FOCT.
• This blog has NO relevance for any other people. In fact this blog will make NO SENSE to people outside this piloting community.
• Some of the information is technical and might not make sense to people with less than advanced computer skills.
• The following is NOT official information.   This information is NOT provided in the FOCT.  This is my personal information that I offer in the hope that it may help you.

How to search Airbus FOCT manuals more efficiently

My father, Peter de Crespigny, 88, taking off in a Spitfire, September 2013.

The Airbus Flight Operations Consultation Tool (FOCT) comprises the user interface (Java) and data files that present relevant Airbus and airline manuals to pilots and other interested parties.   My A380 FOCT  for the A380 comprises 2.4GB of data spanning 2,600 files.  The FOCT supports other Airbus aircraft types.

I investigated the FOCT in detail in 2008 before the first A380 arrived at my airline.  I assisted my airline to optimise the our electronic manuals and made recommendations to Airbus to improve the FOCT.  The “DU Search” was one facility that I request in 2008 and that was subsequently released in the FOCT update in 2014.

Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot at 88 years)

The FOCT provides limited documentation on how to search itself for information.

I provide the following notes to help others search the FOCT more effectively.  I use these tools every time I search the FOCT for data.  I have shared this guide with my airline and friends, all who later comment how it helped them to make faster and more narrowed searches.

I hope that this information helps you.

Understanding the FOCT Search Indexes

The FOCT uses the Lucene search engine.   Lucene is an open source, high-performance Java utility that provides search functions for compatible index files for almost unlimited data.

It is possible to view the structure of the FOCT indices.  The Luke (Lucene Index Toolbox) toolkit can open Lucene indices in the FOCT manuals, displaying the structure and showing interesting statistics.   For instance, the FOCT supports Lucene version 1 indices (Lucene is currently up to version 5).  Opening up the ECAM index reveals that there are currently 1,229 ECAM checklists in the A380 (up slightly from the 1,225 checklists that I described at page 157 of “QF32” that I produced in 2011).  Likewise, the TITLE index reveals that there are just 6,931 pages in the A380 Flight Crew Operations Manual (up from 6,334 in January 2010) and just 257 pages in the Flight Crew Training Manual. This is irrelevant information except perhaps to consider the saving and benefits in using electronic rather than paper manuals. Given that an FCOM  “page” can span any length, we would need to use AT LEAST seven reams of paper to print just the FCOM and FCTM!

Every FOCT manual has a corresponding set of indices that are used to enable searches of that manual:

• FCOM – contents, context, ecam, title
• FCTM – contents, title
• MEL – contents, ecam, func_code, title

FOCT Indices:

The FOCT includes many instances of the following indices:  (important indices bolded)

• contents – Contains a listing of the unique words (except for stop words) for the selected manual.  For example the FCOM contains 18,000 unique words.   The “contents” index is used by default.  Word Search window uses this index.   For example: “contents:fire” or “fire”
• context – index not populated.
• ecam – ECAM checklists.  This index is used for internal FOCT purposes and is not user-friendly.  So there is little point searching this index.   For example, the Word Search of “ecam:al_29_10_060_01” retrieves the ECAM “HYD G(Y) RSVR LEVEL LO” checklist.
• func_code  – Index of MEL entries.  For example, to find the “78-30-04 Thrust Reverser Lock” ECAM search using either the Word Search using “func_code:78-30-04”, or the Functional Code search using  “78-30-04”
• title – this is the page name / global display unit / GDU.   The discussion of his topic is now outside the scope of this document.  The title search was useful before Airbus updated the FOCT to provide the “DU Search” window.   For example, the DU Search of “4192” finds the same Autopilot page as the Word Search of the page “title: lg01087*”

Search using the following expression:   [indexname:]search_expression

• indexname is one of the index names listed above (in lower case).  The colon marks the end of the index name  (ie   func_code:23-72-01)
• search-expression is the alphanumeric search text

Understanding the FOCT Search Windows

The FOCT includes search windows for:

• Word Search   – defaults to “contents” index
• Interface Search – enable by setting “isInterfaceSearchActivated = true” in  ..\foct-conf\ct-access-search.config
• Index Search – Index not populated.  Not worth enabling.
• ECAM Search
• Functional Code Search –  defaults to ” “func_code” index
• DU Search – Search Display Units

As described previously, the Functional Code Search is similar to the Word Search, except that the Functional Code Search defaults to the “func_code” index.  For example, these two searches both locate the same MEL  (DDG) page for “24-21-01 Engine Electrical Generator”:

• FUNCTIONAL CODE SEARCH – “24-21-01”    (defaults to func_code index)
• WORD SEARCH  – “func_code:24-21-01”   (forced to search “func-code” index instead of default “contents” index)

FOCT Search

Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot at 88 years)

Knowledge is everywhere.  The challenge for knowledge management systems is to  quickly identify then dive for just the pearls of wisdom rather than drown the in the ocean of big data.

The FOCT’s success as an electronic bookshelf depends upon the quality of the search engine and your ability to quickly find just the information that you need.   Unfortunately the FOCT provides little information about how to use the many search windows and no information about Lucene searches.

 The challenge …  dive for just the pearls of wisdom rather than drown the in the ocean of big data.

Enabled Search Features

Here are some search expressions that the FOCT’s search windows support.

Complex Search Examples

The following searches use various combinations of two words (icing and fuel) to show the options and their corresponding search results.

Keep Calm and Aviate!
(Painting by Coplu Coplu.com)

Note:  These search results were compiled in 2010 using the FOCT at that time.  Your search results may vary.

Flaring Iraqi gas fields (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Notes:

1. All searches are case insensitive
2. The search operation only searches for valid search words (not including Stop Words)
3. You cannot search for a combined phrase with a trailing wildcard such as “t?re”?
4. FOCT boolean (AND OR NOT) queries do not obey a strict boolean logic. “A AND B” or “A AND NOT B” will work as expected, but “A AND B OR C” will give unexpected results. It’s best when thinking of the logic to think in terms of the logic simply being applied one step at a time from the left to the right. It’s also easiest to think in terms of MUST and MUST_NOT (“+”, “-” ) instead of in terms of AND, OR, and NOT.
5. Caution. When using a + prefix, every word must have a prefix, otherwise unexpected results are returned.
6.  The FOCT also includes other utilities that could provide additional functionality (i.e. ACE viewers).
7.  I am happy to share more deeper technical information about searching the many FOCT indexes if requested.

Suggested FOCT Modifications

“Knowledge”  Painting by Coplu (Coplu.Com)

Report on Resilience

“Resilience – Recovering pilots’ lost flying skills”

The Royal Aeronautical Society, London has published the report that I produced after I opened the Flight Simulation Conference at the RAeS in London in November 2014.

(Data FSF)

My report studies the flight safety statistics from 1942 until 2014 and the implications for flight simulation industry.

The future trend for Aviation flight safety (hull losses/year) can take three paths:

1. extrapolates to zero by 2025, or
2. levels at the incidence of Black Swan Events, or
3. increases as a result of many factors.

My report then analyses three methods to mitigate for senario 3 (an increase in the aviation accidents):

1. (ODG osterhoutgroup.com)

   more hands on flying time, and

2. Stress Proof Deliberate Practice, and
3. cloud hosted high fidelity low cost personal simulation anywhere anytime.   Note:   ODG and Oculus Rift have key technologies that form the basis for hosted VR simulators.

RAeS Airspace, June 2015 p32

Captain Chesley (Sully) Sullenberger  (US Airways Flight 1549)  and Commander Jim Lovell (NASA Apollo 13) kindly contributed to the report.

My report was published in the June edition of “Aerospace” (pp 32-37).

Click here to download the report

Optimism (Painting by Coplu (Coplu.Com))

Three Video Interviews

Black Swan Events: Interview with Richard de Crespigny

Captain Eric Auxier has a very good aviation web site Adventures of CAP’N Aux

Captain Eric Auxier with Coral and me as an Oshkosh 2015 sunset.

Eric recently conducted a long interview with me about values and beliefs, leadership, teamwork, training, resilience, decision making, crisis management, open disclosure and personal guarantees.   Eric then edited the interview to make three separate videos.

Links to Eric’s three interviews are below:

• Interview 1(13 minutes)
• Interview 2   Discussing Responsibility, Corporate & Personal Culture, Teamwork, Challenging Authority (managing upwards / STOP!) and Control Checks. (13 minutes)

• Interview 3 – on Swiss cheese, advice fo aspiring pirates and flying lawnmowers

(Eric Auxier)

The interviews are also being printed in the July, August and September 2015 editions of the Airways Magazine.

Meaning of Life  (Painting by Coplu (Coplu.com))

Presentation in the Woods at Oshkosh

Oshkosh 2015

The EAA AirVenture Oshkosh is the World’s premier fly-in airshow in the USA.  The airshow ran from 20-26 July 2015.   The air traffic control is the busiest air traffic control in the world.

EAA chairman Jack Pelton said that:

• more than 16,200 airplanes landed at Oshkosh, a ten year high,
• more than 3,000 aircraft arrived on some days, and
• about 550,000 visitors attended the event, most of whom arrived in automobiles rather than light airplanes.

I presented twice at Oshkosh:

• Theater in the Woods at the Oshkosh Airshow on the opening evening (7 -9 pm) on Sunday 19th July 2015  (AOPA trailer re my talk)
• Monday 20th July at Forum Stage 7.

Commander Jim Lovell, Fred Haise presented to a packed audience at the Theatre on Wednesday night 22 July.

Commander Jim Lovell, Fred Haise, Bill Reeves (Apollo program flight controller) and Milt Windler (one of the four Apollo 13 Flight Directors)

I had the pleasure to fly many Australians who had attended Oshkosh, home from Dallas to Sydney.  We all agreed that the EAA (Oshkosh) airshow is the best fly-in airshow in the world.

• Oshkosh statistics
• Captain Eric Auxier’s video summary of Oshkosh 2015.

Rort Air (Painting by Jaak de Koninck http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Your Highness Ms Universe by Coplu (Coplu.Com)

Mike asks:

Hi Richard,

Having read your book QF32 and a number of resources available online, please let me ask one question regarding  your video interview on youtube.

During the interview, you talk about the decision whether to follow the ECAM instructions to switch off the ENG 4 hydraulic pumps (“5 and 6″), and how you suggested that “everybody think about this for some seconds” before pressing the guarded pushbutton, to figure out if it makes sense to reduce redundancy on the still working yellow hydraulic system.

A380 Overhead Hydraulics Panel lit up in “test mode”.  Faults are displayed in amber font.  Push button actions are displayed in white font  (Photo RDC)

The journalists asks you whether, in hindsight, you have found an explanation as to why ECAM would prompt you to switch those pumps off, and your answer is somewhat along the lines of, you were not allowed to disclose those details at that time, but it would be in the final report, and we should be surprised when reading the answer.

Of course, I have also read the final report, but obviously I missed the respective answer (it is quite an overwhelming read; I cannot even imagine what kind of experience that must have been for you in the real-life situation).

So I would kindly like to ask, whether you could today share a few technical insights into that question (i.e. if it is legal for you today). Why was it sensible to switch off the ENG 4 HYD pumps?   ;-)

Thank you very much,
Mike from Germany

Richard Answers

Hi Mike from Germany,

Thanks for your question. I am now able to discuss two critical pieces of information that I was not able to include in my book.

Airline flying is a very professional business that is unforgiving of mistakes.

1. Background

Andrew Eccles in the Concorde simulator at Brooklands, UK (Photo RDC)

The A380 has two independent hydraulic systems named “Green” and “Yellow”.  (Interestingly these colours were inherited from the Concorde over 50 years ago, that had three independent hydraulic systems named Green, Blue and Yellow, but that is another story).

• The 120 litre Green hydraulic reservoir is located in pylon 1, above Engine 1 on the left wing.  The Green hydraulics are powered by a total of four engine driven pumps on engines 1 & 2.   The green system contains 585 litres of Skydrol hydraulic fluid.
• The 120 litre Yellow hydraulic reservoir is located in pylon 4, above Engine 4 on the right wing.  The Yellow hydraulics are powered by a total of four our engine driven pumps on engines 3 & 4. The yellow system contains 545 litres of Skydrol hydraulic fluid.

A380 Overhead Hydraulics Panel during normal flight (Photo RDC)

Skydrol  (or an alternate fluid called “HyJet IV”) is a specially coloured hydraulic fluid that is authorised to be used in the A380.  Skydrol is dangerous.  It is so dry and acidic that it burns flesh-eyes.  Any hydraulic leaks in the A380’s 5,000 psi system is extremely dangerous as the stream of high velocity oil acts as a knife capable of cutting through flesh, bones and thin metal.   The good thing is that this fluid self ignites at a very high temperature of about 507 degrees Celsius (engine oil self ignites at about 280 deg C, so you might find it interesting to re-read QF32 at page 320).  Skydrol costs $25 per litre!

Oshkosh 2015

2.0  The Hydraulic Situation on board QF32

The hydraulic problems we faced on QF32 are described at QF32 page 200.

Engine number 2 had exploded.  The ECAM checklists instructed us to shut down the Green hydraulics.  It then told us to shut down half of the Yellow hydraulics.

Example A380 Hydraulic layout (Airbus)

Matt’s hand reached up towards the overhead panel to disconnect the drive shaft for the fifth and sixth pumps out of the total of eight pumps in the Green and Yellow hydraulics.   Pumps 5 & 6  were located on Engine 4.  If Matt pressed the disconnect push button for this engine, then the pumps would not have been recoverable and we would be left with just 2 engine driven hydraulic pumps on Engine 3 to power the entire aircraft.   (The A380 also has electrical hydraulic pumps at some flight controls but some of these were also inoperable.)

A380 Overhead Panel lit up in “test mode” (Photo RDC)

2.1 What we did

Uncontained turbine failure – QF32

“Stop!   Can we all please think about this for ten seconds?”   I called this to stop Matt irreversibly shutting down hydraulic pump s that might affect our destiny without first giving the ECAM and our situation more thought.

My reasoning was obvious.   Why are we shutting down hydraulic pumps on Engine 4 located at the extreme of the right wing when engine 2 exploded on the left wing?   It did not make sense!

I used a rapid decision making method to poll the crew for their thoughts, but the decision what to do with pumps 5 and 6 would be mine.   I was responsible for the lives of 469 passenger and crew.

2.2 Why we did it

I decided to have the two engine driven hydraulic pumps at engine 4 disconnected because:

• Perhaps metal filings or other contaminants or other problems had been detected in the engine 4 hydraulic pumps that might spread and damage the two pumps on engine 3.
• The engine 3 hydraulic pumps must be protected at all costs.

Matt completed the ECAM actions.   This left Nancy-Bird Walton with just two engine driven hydraulic pumps and a couple of small electrical pumps at a few controls.

3.0  What we later found out about the hydraulics

The ATSB report on QF32 had not been released when I wrote my book “QF32”.    Federal laws prohibited me from discussing the following until the ATSB report was published.  Even when it was released, this high level “consumer friendly” ATSB report omitted lots of detailed and fascinating information.  I can now explain two surprising facts.

3.1  The Green hydraulics reservoir was full

Hydraulics – How does the Sequoia tree (world’s largest tree) pump water to the canopy 300′ above the forest floor? Is there 8 atm (120 psi) of water pressure at the roots? Is the 300′ tree height limited due to hydraulic pressure?  (Physics for the Coffee Table)

This is fascinating!  All the pilots that day saw the ECAM checklists and watched the hydraulic System Display show the bleed air pressure in the green hydraulic reservoir (to stop pump cavitation) fail, then the hydraulic fluid level reduce to zero and then the Green Hydraulic system fail.

We discovered six months after the flight that the green reservoir was in fact full at the end of the flight, suggesting that the indications we saw and the ECAM warnings were wrong, and that perhaps we might not have needed to turn off the hydraulics on Engine 1.

3.2  The Yellow hydraulics system was operating normally

We did not need to disconnect the two engine driven hydraulic pumps on engine 4.   Again, the severed wires and quadrax cables limited our view, the ECAM’s assessment and our understanding of the aircraft’s status.   Engine 4 had degraded to an ALTerNate mode with its maximum thrust reduced as a consequence.   The severed-shorting wires (communications and logic)  probably reduced the ECAM’s ability to understand the Yellow hydraulic system.

Coral asks – are there extraordinary hydraulic pressures inside this large Sequoia tree (Sequoia National Forest, CA, USA)

The ECAM checklist instructed us to disconnect the engine driven hydraulic pumps on Engine 4.  I initiated a discussion amongst the pilots whether we should follow ECAM’s suggested  actions.

I ultimately decided that we did not know the status of the aircraft as thoroughly as ECAM did. So in this case, with acceptable hydraulic reserves remaining, I decided that we should follow the ECAM procedures and disconnect pumps five and six.

Our logic was that disconnecting hydraulic pumps five and six would protect the last two remaining hydraulic pumps on engine 3.

Today I still think that our logic that we applied on the 4th November 2010 was correct, based upon what we experienced and deduced.

Damaged forward wing spar & fuel tank – left wing

3.3 Why the confusion?

There is no explanation for this confusing and contradictory information other than my and the ATSB’s guesses that some of the 650 wires and Quadrax (4 aluminium wire duplicated twisted pair ) network cables were severed and shorting.  This meant that incorrect, reduced or no hydraulics information was delivered to the independent Hydraulic System Monitoring computers, ECAM’s flight warning computers, the overhead panels and schematic displays.   (We also received reduced or incorrect information about the brakes, fuel, engines and many other systems.)

I am not criticising  aviation certification standards, Airbus nor the A380.   Aviation learns through failures and we are fortunate to be able to analyse these failures with the intention to improve safety.

3.3.1 Very technical

First stop on the Jossie Harris & Clint Berry honeymoon – the A380 cockpit (VH-OQD) (Dubai 27Aug15)

Aircraft and engine manufacturers sometimes use the automotive twisted pair CAN bus and ARINC 429 (an aviation extension of the CAN bus) protocols for insecure computer-sensor communications.

Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines use the CAN bus for many communications to the A380’s Input/Output Modules.

These simple two wire twisted pair protocols might not be resilient to hacking or sensor and open circuit failures.  For example, earthed automobile engine oil pressure transducers connect via just one single wire to the oil pressure indicator.   These instruments cannot differential between an open circuit and a zero.   So a car’s oil pressure indicator will incorrectly display zero oil pressure when the engine is running if the wire is disconnected from the pressure transducer.

100s of cut belly wires, cables and air pipes

Severed belly AFDX cables and pipes

More secure, advanced and resilient communication networks (such as the Airbus AFDX with Quadrax cables) are used for critical communications.  These complex systems offer additional resilience to errors such as open circuit and sensor identification-presence, failures and hacking.  Unfortunately many of these quadrax cables were also severed during the QF32 incident.

4.   Apollo 13 – Sensor Failure!

Let’s solve the problem, team … let’s not make it any worse by guessing”

My honour to meet and interview the NASA legend Gene Kranz (2015)

We were in a mind space during QF32 after the explosion that was similar to the mood of the controllers at Houston during the Apollo 13 mission.   The NASA controllers were making no progress after after the oxygen tank exploded.

The controllers were living in a “fog of war”.  Virtually every controller had problems and no one could see a pattern in it all.  Gene Kranz said it was like “living a bad dream”.

Gene told his team “Let’s solve the problem, team … let’s not make it any worse by guessing”.

The controllers looked at two of Apollo 13’s failing power systems.  They initially thought they had lost the instrument readings due to a high gain antenna alignment problem.  Eventually, with his team’s help, Gene Kranz made sense of the chaos with the parameters.

Failure was not an option

Gene decided to permanently shut the reactant valves in two fuel cells to preserve oxygen for the third fuel cell.  It was a courageous decision and the best decision in the circumstances, and similar to our decision on QF32 to disconnect hydraulic pumps 5 and 6 to protect pumps 7 & 8.

In our case the remaining hydraulic pumps on Engine 3 worked faultlessly.  However in Apollo 13’s case the oxygen leak and confusion continued, and Commander Jim Lovell  was now facing a total loss of the electrical and oxygen systems  …

Commander Jim Lovell, Fred Haise, Bill Reeves (Apollo 13 Flight Controller) and Milt Windler (one of the four Apollo 13 Flight Directors) at Oshkosh 2015

Gene’s team had to quickly decide how to return Apollo 13 to Earth.  Failure was not an option.  They had the choice of a high-risk fast (U turn) abort that could get the astronauts home in 34 hours, or to conduct a rocket burn to rejoin the free return trajectory that would get them home two days later.    The fast return assumed the main engine would still function, something that Gene correctly resisted.   Gene’s low risk and conservative option turned out to be the correct choice and a great exercise in crisis management and decision making.  With the help of his team, Gene made the courageous decision just 57 minutes after the oxygen tank exploded to commit to the longer trip (around the moon) home.

5.  Back to QF32

You are a lucky man Clint Berry! Congratulations (see Jossie above)

There was confusion with QF32.  QF32’s aircraft communications, networks and computers were so damaged and disrupted that we could never have expected to fully appraise the hydraulics systems from the ECAM messages, the overhead panel displays, nor from the System Displays (that each normally use independent sensors).

Computers and automation:  A case of “Pearls in – Pearls out”, or “Garbage in – Garbage out”?

Faced with the deluge of warning messages being received at Mascot, the engineers on the ground thought that the ECAM had failed and that it needed to be reset.    But unlike Apollo 13, QF32 had lost its satellite voice communications.   Any decisions we had to make on the aircraft, we had to make on our own.

Mike, if you felt overwhelmed when reading QF32, then I can assure you that the pilots were also operating at their limits in the cockpit that day.  We were also living in our “fog of war”.

Solve the problem but don’t make it worse by assuming, presuming or guessing

I wrote in my book QF32 how the fuel system overwhelmed me, which is why I prepared for the Armstrong Spiral to mitigate a loss of all engines.   The ATSB investigators later told me that the Fuel Quantity Management System computers were so compromised that ECAM would never have made sense of the the fuel systems nor give us valid guidance about the fuel systems on QF32 that day.

The hydraulics systems however were a bit easier to understand than the fuel systems, and a lot more manageable.

6.  Did we do the right actions?

I am proud of the knowledge reasoning and calm that the crew exercised on QF32 when we faced the confusing sets of ECAM checklists, overhead panels and systems displays.

Airline flying is a very professional business that is unforgiving of mistakes.  Our handling of this ECAM checklist was an example of how we delayed actioning an ECAM checklist until we had analysed the system, the procedure and its consequences – whether it made sense and whether it was the right thing to do.  This was an example of why pilots must have a deep knowledge and understanding of their aircraft’s systems.

Ignorance is never an excuse. Know your machine inside out.

With the power of hindsight, the actions that we took five years ago still make sense today (based on what we faced in the cockpit back then).    None of this information that we received months after the flight makes me think that our logic was wrong on the day when we disconnected the hydraulic pumps for engines 1 and 4.

I am always keen to receive advice and learn from others, and happy to admit if I have made a mistake.  There are many armchair quarterback critics that have different views to mine and who criticised our actions. However if I was faced with the same black swan event today with the failures, displays and ECAMs today, that we had on QF32, then I would do the same actions again today.

7.  Summary

Mike I hope that this long reply answers your question.

I have equally complex answers to the questions of why we did not land quickly after the explosion, and why we chose not to order the passengers down the evacuation slides after landing.  These discussions are all food for thought.

Karl Stefanovic with Dave, Harry, me, Matt and Mark taken during a 60 Minutes interview (Photo: 60 Minutes)

QF32 was an example of team excellence, where 8 teams pooled their knowledge, training and experience working to survive a black swan event.

• I am proud of the pilots (Matt Hicks, Dave Evans, Harry Wubben and Mark Johnson).
• I am proud of CSM Michael Von Reth and his cabin crew

QF32 Customer Service Manager – Michael Von Reth

I think QF32 was a “successful failure” because all 469 passengers and crew were returned home to their loved ones without injury after a black swan event.  It was also a “successful failure” for the lessons learned.

Risk is the price of progress and discovery.  We have to have the courage to accept risk and to continually push against the boundaries of science if we are to grow and develop to become a wiser and kinder manager of our planet.  We also need the knowledge, experience and teamwork to conquer the unknown.

Finally, we need inspired leaders at the leading edge like Neil Armstrong, Jim Lovell and Eugene Kranz who could identify, rate and work with risk and prove resilient in the Fog of Battle.

Many of the fabulous QF32 cabin crew. Thank you!

You cannot train for a black swan event.  However you can prepare for the unexpected.  Resilient people anticipate failures and understand how systems fail.  Because prevention is impossible.  So you will have to mitigate the failures and use your knowledge and teamwork to counter-attack.  Because when you have the confidence to make the courageous decisions, that’s when you will become intrepid leaders of intrepid teams, and that’s when you will become bullet proof and not gun shy and best able to survive the “unknown unknowns”.

Some of the professional, competent and handsome cabin crew from QF32

I have the highest respect for my airline, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and the A380.

• I have the highest respect and confidence for the Rolls Royce Trent 900 engine.
• I consider the A380 is still the biggest most comfortable, most quiet and greatest passenger jet aircraft in the sky.

Come fly with us and we’ll show you WHY!

A380 closing @ 1,800 kilometres per hour 4,000 feet above (RDC)

See also

• The Empirical Skeptic

With my suggestions for the Industry

Wonder (Painting by my friend Coplu (Coplu.Com))

Jaanus Torp writes:

A good picture of an uncontained turbine failure

Hello Richard,

I just finished your book and I might say that it is not suitable for before bed reading.  Even though I had read the final report and knew the outcome, I was still quite wired by the masterfully written gripping drama.

I have a question about matters that you might not want to discuss or have not enough information about but which were left in the air.

The ATSB’s Final Report on QF32 focuses mainly on recommendations to Rolls-Royce and touches only very lightly on Airbus’s involvement. Can you please give some insight into what Airbus learned from this flight and did they make any changes to the design and/or operations of the A380 systems/layout/automation?

Cheers,
Jaanus

Richard replies:

Hi Jaanus, thanks for your question.

Airbus learned a great deal from the QF32 incident.

RIP – Neil Armstrong, designer of the Armstrong Spiral (RDC)

I visited Airbus, Toulouse many times after the QF32 event.  I  delivered presentations about the QF32 event to the RAeS, engineers, test pilots and Airbus’ global leaders and executives.   We discussed Airbus philosophies, methods, practices and how aircraft operations might be improved.

I thanked Airbus for designing and building the A380, a remarkably resilient aircraft that in my case returned 469 passengers and crew home to their loved ones, and saved over 32,000 friends the grief that comes to others in the event of a disaster.  (a future story)

Here is a summary of my discussions and sugestions-predictions for change.

1. Philosophies:

1. Photo taken by QF32 Passenger Kjell Ljungqvist

   Fly-By-Wire (FBW) flight controls, autothrust and flight management automation all  worked well and as expected. (no change)

2. Install a “LAND ASAP” push button on the ECAM control panel, that inverts the logic (QF32 p198) and gives the pilots the minimum essential instructions to land/ditch immediately.   (R&D)
   (See another discussion on this topic)
3. Install my implementation of Neil Armstrong’s Spiral (QF32 p170)  into future Flight Management Systems.  (unlikely, due to accompanying airline costs to train the manoeuvre)

2. Practices:

1. The SOPs, role and task divisions for two pilot operations worked well.   (no change)
2. Include in pilots’ manuals a detailed description about flight control checks in fly by wire aircraft.  (commenced)
3. Pilot training to include Stress Free Deliberate Practice   (hopeful)

3. Aircraft:

1. Damaged to lift at QF32’s wing tips to streamlining ailerons (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

   Mount more cameras inside and outside the aircraft for pilots to view the cabin, cargo holds, electronics bays, wheels and engines from within the cockpit.  (unknown)

2. Modify ECAM displays to show the total number of pending ECAM checklists (i.e. 2 of 10).  (accomplished on the A350)
3. Selectively and progressively detune the attention-getting alarms if an ECAM checklist is in progress.  This will reduce pilot distraction.  (unknown)
4. Very technical: Improve some of the the sensors and the CAN busses for OEM systems to better discriminate between an open circuit and a zero.   (unknown)
5. I think some of the ECAM checklists produced incorrect logic (FUEL, HYD …) because of item 4 above.   This was a case of garbage (sensors) -in-garbage (logic) out.   The fuel systems were so confused by the sensor, pump,valves and duct failures  that the Fuel Quantity Management System (FQMS) computers probably needed an alternate program (like the flight controls “Alternate Law”).   I think the unusual ECAM behaviour on board QF32 was unavoidable under the circumstances, and an example of why pilots are still needed to resolve the unexpected.  (human controllers still required in High Reliability Organisations, See also:  Sully Sullenberger: Technology Cannot Replace Pilots)

6. A380 (Trent 900) fan blades, showing the wide chord, forward and aft sweep, and extensive washout. (Photo: RDC)

   Technical:  Include an ECAM advisory message (like that on the B787) to advise that the flight controls are saturated (pilots should make slow and deliberate inputs).   (unknown)

7. It was bad luck that the wires to the brakes and brake temperature sensors on the left wing were cut.  The system displays and ECAM could never have fully resolved the brakes’ situation (see item 5 above) .  (no recommendation-change)
8. Very Technical:  Include an ECAM advisory message to warn that the flight controls are out of phase with the pilot’s inputs (potentially-dangerously inducing rate-limited pilot induced oscillations).

Note: The damage to QF32, wing and fuselage was considerably worse than the damage reported at page 38 of this 2010 report by the AIA  on High Bypass Ratio Turbine Engine Uncontained Rotor Events.

4. Comments

Upper left wing, showing the effects of the significant vortices that are created upwind of the damage then spread-trail back to the trailing edge. (Photo Ulf M. Waschbusch)

4.1 Aerodynamic Damage

Matthew Orchard, Head of Design Wing (ESW) with the remarkable A380 wing at the Airbus Wing Factory, Broughton (Photo: Airbus)

We discussed the:

1. damage to the wing, the flight controls, and its effects on the aircraft’s controllability,
2. incorrect performance calculations that produced approach speeds that were too slow and that gave insufficient margin to the stall (QF32 p259),
3. incorrect flight displays that resulted because of the aerodynamic damage to the wing, and the
4. “SPEED SPEED” and “STALL STALL” warnings that we heard during the approach.

Frank Ogilvie (former Aerodynamics Director and Deputy Head of Overall Design for the A380 project) in front of the bottom panel of the A380 wing at the Airbus Wing Factory, Broughton, UK.  (Photo: Airbus)

Technical:

1. Simulation of upper surface exposed to battle damage (T.W. Pickhaver & P.M. Render RAeS Journal Aug2105 p937)

   Many people have tried, but there is no easy way to predict the aerodynamic effects of damage to an aircraft’s wing.   In the case where there is a hole passing through top and bottom wing panels, wind tunnel tests (see image to the right) show a pair of horse-shoe vortices starting upstream from the hole, then broadening downstream on both sides to the trailing edge.  The flow separates behind the damage and there is significant reverse flow.  The lift and aerodynamic moments are significantly affected.

2. Frank Ogilvie (former Aerodynamics Director and Deputy Head of Overall Design for the A380 project) at the Airbus Wing Factory, Broughton, UK (Photo: Airbus)

   Remember that damage to one wing must be replicated (in reduced lift) to the other wing if the aircraft is to fly straight.

3. For aft loaded airfoils (such as all modern supercritical wings), their is a dramatic loss of lift when a trailing edge control surface (i.e. aileron) slipstreams.   (see the description after QF32 page 238)
4. Damage effects are amplified when the damage is located inboard on modern transonic aircraft wings (that have a triangular lift distribution).

Matthew Orchard, Head of Design Wing (ESW) shows me the A380 wing with landing gear attachment lugs.  Airbus Wing Factory, Broughton (Photo: Airbus)

In the event of wing damage, I think the practical solution for predicting the effects of the damage, determining the approach speeds and then flying the approach lies more with the pilot:

1. knowing the key JAR-25/CS-25 aircraft certification standards and performance margins, and
2. know the “what”, why,” “how”, and “if-thens” of controllability checks (specifically for fly-by-wire aircraft).

Head-Up Display (Painting by Coplu (Coplu.Com))

4.2 Electrical  Damage

Part of electrical damage to the left wing

We discussed the extreme number (more than 650) of wires and network cables that were cut and the loss of systems that resulted from damage inside the left wing and the belly of the fuselage.  Even though Engine number 2 exploded, the damage extended to include Engine 1.  Four separate pairs of wires that took separate paths to two independent fuel shutoff valves for Engine 1 were all cut, rendering us unable to shut down Engine 1 until three and a half hours after we landed (QF32 p323).   Four pairs of wires to two fire extinguishers on Engine 1 were also cut, rendering the Engine 1 fire extinguishers useless.  (bad luck – no suggestion)

Electrical and forward wing spar damage to the left wing

This was very bad luck for us though it displayed the resilience of the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines to still control thrust after so many wires had been cut.

Technical:   I asked an ATSB QF32 investigator how many more wires we could have lost and still made it home.  He said “none to Engine 1”.  I’ll leave it to you to work through that interesting scenario.

Many of the fabulous QF32 cabin crew.

4.3 Airline Training

Many airlines have updated their training programs to incorporate lessons learned from the QF32 incident.  I believe cabin crew training at British Airways, Air France, Lufthansa, JAL, Singapore Airlines, Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia have included discussions about QF32.

Another wonderful painting by Jaak De Koninck (www.jaakdekoninck.be)

4.4  Aviation Organisations

I have presented the QF32 story and my thoughts to the World’s most specialised aviation organisations (regulators, safety, security, pilot organisations, investigators, manufacturers, suppliers, financiers, insurers and airlines).

Summary

Jaanus, I maintain absolute respect and admiration for Airbus and the manner in which the A380 was designed, built and tested.

A380 – it’s not just a passenger magnet, it’s also a pilot magnet.

Only the most critical operational changes are ever made to aircraft after they pass certification tests.

(Graph: RDC)

Airbus aircraft are all designed with a common strategic and operational philosophy that extends from the first A320 FBW aircraft to its latest A350.   A philosophical change to how one aircraft type operates would by definition need to be retrofitted to the entire fleet of more than 8,000 Airbus FBW aircraft!

I am not disappointed that Airbus will probably implement few of my recommend changes.  It’s a lot easier for me to think of quick and short term narrow fixes to individual aircraft designs, than it is for Airbus to design and integrate these changes throughout all of their aircraft fleets.  I am confident that the critical changes will eventually be implemented.

Thank you Gelly Kalouta and the JW Marriott Marquis, Dubai  for your scaled A380!

Nancy-Bird suffered over 500 fuselage impacts from shrapnel. I wrote that the probability of this incident happening again is one in 10^-14, that is, one million times less probable than the most stringent certification standards.   The aircraft flew remarkably well, which is a testament to the Airbus designers, builders, testers and maintainers.

When I have the privilege to fly Nancy-Bird, I tell my passengers before the flight that they are lucky to be travelling on an aircraft that is dear to my heart. Nancy-Bird has been stress tested and case hardened more than any other aircraft in the sky – and it proved itself indestructible that day.

I provide the feedback and lessons above to serve as tools for your toolbox of solutions that you might need one day when you face the unknown unknowns.  Every incident is different.  Every incident has it’s own unique threats, risks and outcomes.  So these “Technical Lessons from QF32” should only viewed in their context as another case study and food for thought.

Don’t let appearances deceive you! This is a $400m and 4m piece Passenger and Pilot Magnet

To every Airbus employee, thank you again for designing and building such a resilient aircraft.

It is my life’s ambition to be a pilot, and my pleasure to fly the A380.  Come fly with me and I’ll show you why.

The A380 – it’s not just a passenger magnet, it’s also a pilot magnet.

(Photo RDC)

See also:

• QF32 Hydraulics and the Fog of War
• Photos – QF32 Damage
• Photos – QF32 Wing
• Photos – QF32 Repair and Return

Discussions:

• Evacuation vs Deplane with steps
• Airborne vs Land ASAP  (future)
• Aircraft Flight Control Checks  (the “what”, why,” “how”, and “if-thens”)  (future)
• Crisis management (my next book ….)
• Leadership & building resilient teams (my next book ….)

(Photo RDC)

The Airbus A380 registered VH-OQA, named “Nancy-Bird Walton” is a special aircraft.

Nancy-Bird was a remarkable woman.

Wherever you are on Friday the 16th October, lift a glass  and toast to the memory of one of Australia’s greatest adventurers and women.

My God What a Woman!

A part of my heart will always be reserved for Nancy-Bird Walton AO, OBE, DStJ.   She had a passion to fly:

• This was around the time of the earliest aviation services.  Australia’s first subsidised air service was the Adelaide/Sydney flight in 1924.  Flying took two hours longer than the train!
• Nancy-Bird had her first flight in 1928 at the age of 13, then four years later had saved 200 pounds to learn to fly.
• Her first lesson was with Charles Kingsford Smith in a Gipsy Moth.   Like all pilots of that time she wore a scarf to wipe the rotary engine’s castor oil from her goggles.
• She received her commercial licence at the age of 19.  She was the first woman to operate an aircraft commercially in Australia.   At that time pilots did not have radios, which would have been useless anyway because there were no ground facilities.
• This was around 1935 when passengers in KLM aircraft were equipped with a helmet, goggles and hot water bag!   The Australian Defence Minister H Thorby proclaimed: “Flying was not consistent with a women’s role in life”.
• Nancy-Bird later joined the Royal Flying Doctor Service.
• She founded the Australian Women Pilots’ Association (AWPA) in 1950 and was made its Patron in 1981.
• Nancy-Bird mentored female pilots.   She had an open house policy where pilots could come and stay with her for no charge.  She said: “the good things I have had in life, and the wonderful opportunities, have come through friendship, not through my bank account.”

(Photo RDC)

VH-OQA was Qantas’s first A380.   This aircraft was named “Nancy-Bird Walton” at a ceremony in Sydney on September 30, 2008 where Nancy-Bird said:  “I’ve made it my business to stay alive for today’s ceremony – and I’ve made it!  I’ve made it!”

As the swinging champagne bottle approached the fuselage Nancy-Bird cried “don’t scratch my aeroplane!”.

Please click here to see the Nancy-Bird Walton (VH-OQA) Naming Ceremony .

“I’ve made it my business to stay alive for today’s ceremony – and I’ve made it!  I’ve made it!”

Nancy-Bird Walton (source unknown)

Nancy-Bird died three months later on the 13 January 2009 aged 93.  Her namesake A380 made a fly-past at Nancy-Bird’s funeral where below, AWPA members had turned out in pink and pearls to inspire more female aviators.

“No matter how foolish, it is not the things in life that you do, but the things that you don’t do, that you regret” (Nancy-Bird Walton)

On the 4th November 2010 I was flying “Nancy-Bird Walton” on Qantas flight QF32.  Engine number 2 exploded four minutes after takeoff, starting a chain of events that would change the lives forever for the 5 pilots, 24 crew and 440 passengers:

• “Nancy-Bird Walton” suffered over 500 fuselage impacts from shrapnel. I wrote that the probability of this incident happening again is one in 10^-14, that is, one million times less probable than the most stringent certification standards.
• The aircraft flew remarkably well, which is a testament to the Airbus designers, builders, testers and maintainers. Nancy-Bird would be proud.
• I wrote in “QF32” at page 294:  “Nancy-Bird had died a few months after the VH-OQA naming ceremony and now, two years later, here was her plane, deciding also to stay alive until she returned 469 souls to safety.  I’m not a religious person, but if Nancy was watching us from afar I am sure she would have been so very proud of  how her aircraft performed and to have her name emblazoned on that wonderful machine.”

OQA (Nancy Bird-Walton) taking off at Sydney Airport (2012) (RDC)

My God it’s a Woman!

Nancy-Bird wrote her biography aptly entitled “My God! it’s a Woman!”    This was a passenger’s response when he discovered Nancy-Bird in the action seat.  “My God, I’m not going to fly in that.  The pilot’s a woman!”

At page 13 she writes “A pilot has it in the head and hands, not just by flying off into the distance”.   Nancy-Bird had in the head and hands and she has pioneered into the distance, but she will never be forgotten.

STEM – Flight (Love) by the Mode Control Panel light (Photo: Richard de Crespigny. Title courtesy Meatloaf)

“Nancy-Bird Walton” lives on

Naming aircraft after famous people is a recent change for my company.   I had met Nancy-Bird before my QF32 flight. She was a short but tough role model, an inspiration and stalwart for female pilots.

 “My God, I’m not going to fly in that.  The pilot’s a woman!”

“Nancy-Bird Walton” was repaired after the QF32 event and returned to service.   It was probably the longest and most expensive repair in aviation history:

• Click here to read: Repair report for “Nancy-Bird Walton“
• The QF32 flight concluded, 535 days late, but still very welcome.   There was not a dry eye in the cabin when we touched down in Sydney.  Click here to view the video:  Welcome home Nancy-Bird Walton

Nancy-Bird walton (photo: Sue Stafford. Reproduced courtesy of the Museum of Applied Arts and Sciences)

Nancy-Bird, Matt Hicks and QF32

Nancy-Bird influenced the outcome of the QF32 event.

Nancy-Bird mentored Matt Hicks, my remarkable First Officer on board QF32.   Matt continues to excel and is now a Captain on Boeing 737s.   When he was a first officer, Matt Hicks made every captain look good and there is more to Matt’s story than my comments at QF32, page 333:

“Nancy-Bird Walton had  helped Matt, fifteen years earlier, by providing a character reference for him when he applied to join Qantas.  ….”

(Photo: Matt Hicks)

Nancy-Bird shared her love of flight with Matt, then helped him gain employment with Qantas.   Matt kindly writes:

Matt Hicks (Photo RDC)

My grandmother Dulcie Donkin (“My God! it’s a Woman!”  page 21) was one of Nancy’s friends growing up on neighbouring properties in St George, outback Queensland.   Even though they rode horses together and consumed stolen liquor together, my grandmother was not a fan of aviation! 

My mother is Nancy’s God Daughter.

Dulcie (Gran) went up with Nancy on one of Kingsford-Smith’s barnstorming trips to Wingham.  The pilot was Pat Hall, the aircraft was the Southern Cross Junior.   It was one of Nancy’s first exposures to the world of flying.  Gran funded part of the 200 pounds to fund Nancy’s flying training.

Nancy dropped into Wingham again much later while doing her training with Dan Collins her instructor.   Gran went up with Nancy again,  this time with Nancy flying.   The story has it that Gran was Nancy’s first passenger.

Nancy gave me the copy of her book and her photo at her house in 1990.   She also wrote my reference for Qantas on that day.

Nancy-Bird Walton with her namesake A380

Nancy and Gran remained friends up until Gran’s death at the age of 101.   Nancy unfortunately passed away not long after.

As a side note, Gran was also my first passenger when I gained my Private Pilot’s licence.  We did this as a laugh as Gran wasn’t a great passenger, however she talked it up with the best of them!

Matt Hicks in the A380 cockpit – December 2010 (Photo: The Australian)

Spirit of Australians

Nancy’s represents the best of the Australian spirit and our national culture.  Her memories endure for every passenger lucky to fly on board VH-OQA “Nancy-Bird Walton”.

VH-OQA, the namesake of a great Australian, has a special meaning for me that will live in my heart and mind forever.

When I have the privilege to fly “Nancy-Bird Walton”, I tell my passengers before the flight that they are lucky to be travelling on an aircraft that is dear to my heart.  “Nancy-Bird Walton” has been stress tested and case hardened more than any other aircraft in the sky – and it proved itself indestructible that day.

I walk the cabin and talk to the passengers – they share my emotion and pride.

Celebrate Nancy-Bird’s 100th Birthday

(Photo RDC)

Nancy was born on the 16th October 1915.

The Australian Women Pilots’ Association (AWPA) is celebrating Nancy-Bird’s 100th Birthday at a dinner on Friday 16th October 2015.

The 3 course Gala Dinner (with big band) is at Doltone House, 48 Pirrama Road, Pyrmont, Sydney, Australia.  A few seats are still available at $150 per person.

Please contact nancy.bird.dinner@gmail.com or Tammy Augostin (+61 409 868 380) for more details.

Wherever you are on Friday the 16th October, lift a glass  and toast to the memory of one of Australia’s greatest adventurers.

See also

• Photos – QF32 Repair
• Australian Women Pilots’ Association

(Photo RDC)

With a sad and heavy heart I learned that aviator and test pilot Captain Eric Melrose ‘Winkle’ Brown CBE DSC AFC HonFRAeS Royal Navy died on 21 February 2016.

Eric Melrose Winkle Brown (21 January 1919 – 21 February 2016)  (Photo: Twitter)

“Winkle” Brown was to British aviation what Chuck Yeager is to the USA aviation.

 When you read his life story, it makes James Bond seem like a bit of a slacker (Kirsty Young)

“Winkle” Brown was the recipe for the right stuff.  He was probably the world’s greatest test pilot:

• He tested and flew 487 aircraft types – a record that will probably never be beaten
• He made over 2,407 aircraft carrier deck landings  – a record that will probably never be beaten
• He was the first to land a jet on an aircraft carrier

His knowledge, flying skills, experience and wisdom proved his resilience in his extraordinary high risk profession in which many perished.

At the end of the day I felt tremendous satisfaction in having beaten the odds.  This is one of the most attractive aspects of flying: taking on danger and winning.   Because you know what waits for you if you don’t win.   (“Winkle” Brown)

“Winkle” Brown gave back.  I viewed presentations he delivered in the UK up to about a year ago.  He could hold an audience spellbound for more than an hour without written notes.   He recalled aircraft designs, horsepowers, speeds and incidents of the last century as clearly as if he was still in the pilot’s seat.

be prepared for everything

He valued knowledge.  He understood his machines from the ground up.  This started with his first (500cc Norton) motorcycle.   He was a stickler for preparation before flight.   He said, “be prepared for everything”.

You will hear and read many extraordinary tributes about “Winkle” Brown over the next few months.  Here are a few:

• Royal Aeronautical Society
• Naval Air History
• BBC (news)
• BBC (excellent 1 hour 2014 documentory)

Thank you Eric “Winkle” Brown for your contributions that made the sky safe for the billions of travellers on planet Earth.    You had the skills of Chuck Yeager with the knowledge and humility of Neil Armstrong.  Like both, you made a profound difference.  You were a teacher to many you never met.   Your legacy will endure to inspire aviators world wide.

Graham Reddin, my friend way back from our RAAF days writes at LinkedIn:

My book “QF32” was published in July 2012, about one year before the ATSB published its report into QF32.   Because of this mismatch in time, I was not permitted to publish information discovered by the ATSB that was not already available in the public domain.  Information I included in the “Stub Pipe” chapter was therefore limited only to my knowledge and best guesses.

I have just become aware of a video of an ATSB presentation delivered in February 2016, well after the ATSB report was released.   This presentation details exactly what happened in the chain of events that led to the engine failure.

I recommend this fifty minute presentation to people who want to know the  exact cause for the uncontained engine failure.

Fortunately, the ATSB presentation agrees with and validates all I wrote in “QF32”.  The report also included things I did not know.  The investigator said the three primary fragments of the IP disk exited the engine at a speed of 880 metres per second (880 * 1.98 = 1742 knots or M2.63),  2.63 times the speed of Sound.

Of the three fragments of the Intermediate Pressure Turbine (IPT) disk that left the engine at Mach 2.6, only two impacted the fuselage.  As they left the engine, these two pieces severed both engine thrust links (that transmits thrust to the engine strut), bent the $1m engine strut, then cut and energised hundreds of sub-pieces of shrapnel that in turn damaged other parts of the aircraft.

Let’s put the kinetic energy of these two pieces into perspective.  The kinetic energy of the complete 160kg IPT turbine equals 1/2 mass multiplied by the velocity squared.   80 kg x 880^2 = 62 million joules.  This is the same energy as the muzzle energy of  71,000 .357 Magnum rounds.(62,000,000/873).  The two pieces that hit the aircraft represented about 210 degrees of the 360 degree disk, equivalent to a 41,000 magnum assault.

The ATSB  does not blame people or organisations.  It simply finds causes so that the industry can learn and implement lessons to prevent recurrences.    This philosophy has great application for resilience in other industries, such as medicine.

Seven years after QF32, I still hold my greatest respect for Airbus, the A380, my airline and especially Rolls-Royce.  I visited the Rolls-Royce production plant in Derby, UK just two weeks before its Trent 900 engine exploded on QF32.   My confidence in Rolls-Royce has continued unabated and I hope to visit my friends at Rolls-Royce and tour their facilities again soon.

I recommend this video for the technically minded.

I send you my best wishes for 2018.

(My next book is now with Penguin editors and is due out in September 2018)

Frank Ogilvie, father of the A380, in front of the A380 wing he designed, at the Airbus Wing Factory (Photo: Airbus)